Wednesday, June 28, 2006

The perfect arbitrage opportunity?

I just saw a post on this blog about how bookmakers in England have the English listed as a favorite to win their match against Portugal despite a distinct lack of success against Portugal on the English part.

When I saw that, I was wondering if one could find a bookmaker in Portugal (or perhaps Brazil) that had the Portuguese listed as a favorite.

If so an arbitrage oppurtunity exists. In England you'd bet on Portugal to win (getting underdog odds) and in Portugal/Brazil you'd bet on England to win (also getting underdog odds.)

No matter what happens, you'd end up ahead so long as you can get slightly better than 1-1.

It would be worth looking into if I could speak Portuguese.

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